Two firms that measure Google's results for a living published their AI Overview counts on July 30, 2026, and they landed five points apart. Similarweb's chart puts AI Overviews on roughly 43% of Google queries. Semrush's Sensor data puts them at roughly 48%. Both went out on X, and Search Engine Roundtable's Barry Schwartz republished the pair the same day, noting that when he last checked the same two trackers about a year earlier they read roughly 13% to 20%. Whichever chart you take, the rate has nearly tripled in a year.
Google confirms neither figure. It publishes no official AI Overview coverage rate, so both numbers are outside estimates built from different crawl samples, which is also why they disagree. Both trackers report that informational-intent queries carry a higher rate than the blended average across all query types, though neither put a number on the informational share in this reporting. This is the first time either tracker has been reported crossing 40%, the line several GEO and AEO teams already use internally to decide when audit budget moves from rank tracking toward AI-citation testing.
Sources: Search Engine Roundtable: "Almost Half Of Google Searches Have AI Overviews & Climbing," Barry Schwartz, July 30, 2026, https://www.seroundtable.com/half-google-searches-ai-overviews-41780.html. Underlying data: Similarweb chart (posted to X, July 30, 2026); Semrush Sensor data (posted to X, July 30, 2026).
Credibility: Medium. The strongest thing here is that two independent trackers point the same way; the five-point spread between them is what measuring different crawl samples costs, not a contradiction. The incentive belongs in the same paragraph as the number: Similarweb and Semrush both sell SEO and AI-visibility monitoring, and a chart showing AI Overviews climbing is a chart that argues for the product. That does not reverse the trend, since the two firms have agreed directionally over time, but it does mean the exact percentage is directional rather than precise. There is also nothing official to check either figure against, because Google does not publish an AI Overview coverage rate.
Fact bullets:
- Similarweb chart, posted to X and republished by Search Engine Roundtable July 30, 2026: AI Overviews appear in ~43% of Google queries, up from ~15% at the earliest point shown on the same chart.
- Semrush Sensor data, also republished July 30, 2026: AI Overviews appear in ~48% of tracked Google queries.
- Per Search Engine Roundtable, the same two trackers put AI Overview coverage at roughly 13%-20% when checked about a year earlier (mid-2025).
- Both trackers reportedly show informational-intent queries carrying a higher AI Overview rate than the blended average across all query types (exact percentage not given in this reporting).
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If you own the traffic forecast, the argument to skip is which number is right. 43% and 48% come out of two different crawl samples and neither one belongs to Google, so picking a winner is a debate with no referee. What survives both readings is the shape of it: a year ago a full AI answer sat above your link on something like one search in six, and now it is closer to one in two. That undercuts the assumption most SEO forecasts still run on, which is that a ranking position pays out in clicks at a predictable rate. A page can hold position three all quarter and watch its clicks slide. On-page tuning has no answer for that, because the click went to the block of text printed above the results. The counter-move is to become one of the sources that block cites.
The part that keeps this from turning into a panic: an industry blended average is not your average. Your category might sit at 20% or at 70%, and the number that settles it comes off your own domain, not off either chart. The trend is real, and how much of it reaches you is unmeasured until someone goes and looks.
Recommended actions:
1. Ask your web or analytics team to pull Search Console's AI Overview appearance filter for your top 20 informational-intent pages this week, and compare click-through rate on pages where AI Overviews appear against pages where they do not. That turns an industry percentage into a number about your own site.
2. Run your five highest-traffic informational pages through a first-party AI-citation test this week, ChatGPT, Perplexity and Google AI Mode, and record whether your brand or a competitor gets named. The trackers give you direction; your own citation check is what confirms the direction landed on you.
3. If a client's or an internal stakeholder's reporting still leads with organic click volume, put a citation-rate metric beside it starting next reporting cycle, and write the reason into the report template so habit does not quietly reverse it later.
Search Engine Roundtable: "Almost Half Of Google Searches Have AI Overviews & Climbing," Barry Schwartz, July 30, 2026 — https://www.seroundtable.com/half-google-searches-ai-overviews-41780.html
Underlying data: Similarweb chart (posted to X, July 30, 2026); Semrush Sensor data (posted to X, July 30, 2026)